Political Gyre Update - Happy New Year!

Happy New Year from the Political Gyre! A brief update on the latest 2008 happenings.

First, in mid December Evan Bayh decided he would not seek the Democratic nomination. A bit surprising Bayh bailed this early, but there's some possibility he could still be a VP candidate. Who benefits most? Unclear, but perhaps John Edwards. Since Bayh's departure, Edwards and Dennis Kucinich each announced that they are officially running. Edwards arguably has the best overall appeal of any of the Democratic candidates and could easily emerge as the favorite. What's next? Various sources suggest Mrs. Clinton and John Kerry will be announcing their intentions in the coming weeks. For the Republicans, still no official candidates yet, although a number have exploratory committees (McCain, Giuliani, Romney, Brownback).

We'll see how the upcoming announcements shake out in the next few weeks. I will predict that Kerry and Obama will both decide not to run -- although Obama's official decision could drag out well through the winter, and perhaps spring. At this point, I think the odds of Sen. Clinton running are almost 50/50, although dramatically higher should Obama and Kerry decide not to run.

Updated Power Rankings coming in early/mid January!